Last August, when the Academy announced their (eventually axed) popular film category, I wrote an article making the case for why Marvel’s Black Panther could still get a Best Picture nomination. The new category didn’t end up going ahead, but my suspicions were still proven correct: Black Panther did indeed become the first superhero movie to be nominated for Best Picture, and it even ended up winning three other awards (Score, Costumes and Production Design). So now, here I am again, pondering the Oscar chances of Marvel’s most recent blockbuster – the insanely successful Avengers: Endgame. Can it follow in the footsteps of Panther? There’s a lot to discuss here, so let’s get down to it.
Firstly, do I think Avengers: Endgame SHOULD be nominated for Best Picture? Yes, I do. You can disagree if you want, but I believe it absolutely deserves to be in contention: this is the culmination of a 22-film saga that, whether you’re a fan or not, has become a major part of modern pop-culture, and it’s a damn good one at that, with satisfying emotional payoffs, thrilling action sequences and excellent work from a star-studded ensemble. That’s why, in my opinion, it should be nominated. Now, whether it WILL get in is a more complicated question, and one I can’t really have a definite answer to, but let’s see where its strengths and weaknesses lie in terms of awards season.
The box office and critical reception certainly won’t hurt it. At the time of writing, it’s the second highest-grossing movie of all time, and could even end up dethroning Avatar for the number one spot. Reviews were hugely positive, earning it a whopping 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, so it also has critical support.
It would be easy to start by comparing the movie to Black Panther, since that was the movie that broke the Oscars’ superhero curse. But really, Panther was in the conversation for different reasons than Endgame – they’re both excellent movies, but the former got in partly because of how it captured the cultural zeitgeist in ways few blockbusters could, and partly because it had considerable support from voters in below-the-line categories like Costume Design and Production Design. The latter is generating buzz because it’s an epic and satisfying conclusion to the story of a blockbuster franchise that’s captured the hearts of cinema-goers worldwide.
It’s difficult to say how far that “end of a saga” narrative can take you. It didn’t work out so well for Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part II, which couldn’t quite go all the way despite hugely positive reviews and the immense popularity of the franchise it concluded. But on the other hand, there’s also The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King, which actually WON Best Picture in addition to ten other awards.
Endgame will need to pick up support in other categories to make it into Best Picture, so let’s look at where else it has a chance. Visual Effects is virtually a lock – it’s the category where Marvel films tend to get recognised, and the effects here are certainly worthy of recognition. The Sound Editing and Mixing categories are not out of the question either. Editing could also be in play (it’s not easy to make a three-hour movie that rarely feels its length), and Alan Silvestri’s score deserves to be in contention (his score for Avengers: Infinity War actually made the shortlist last year, so this is a possibility). Those are the technical categories where it certainly stands a chance.
And as for the above-the-line categories? Well, it would need to garner a LOT of love to get a Best Director nom for the Russos (not even Black Panther managed that for Ryan Coogler), and the same goes for Screenplay. It’s best shot at an acting nomination is Robert Downey Jr, who actually has a pretty solid narrative for the campaigners to push – nominating him would be a good way to recognise the work he’s done in this role over the last 11 years, tracking his character’s evolution from cocky playboy to selfless hero. In addition, he has a moment that could easily be used when they’re showing clips of the acting nominees, that being the scene where he breaks down after returning to Earth in the beginning. The main question, of course, will be whether to push him for lead or supporting. Personally, I feel supporting would be a smarter choice, as he might have a better chance there. I’m not saying a nomination for him is a lock, but it’s not impossible.
As always, support from the major precursors will probably be important here. It’s actually pretty likely that it will get recognition from the Producers Guild, since they are far more willing to honour superheroes and blockbusters than the Academy (examples: Wonder Woman and Deadpool). The Critic’s Choice Awards may also give it a boost if they choose to nominate it. A Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards is plausible, considering the gigantic cast. And then there’s the Golden Globes. Keep in mind, Inception, Mad Max: Fury Road and Black Panther all started their awards-season journeys by picking up nominations for “Best Motion Picture – Drama” at the Globes. Meanwhile, other critically-acclaimed blockbusters such as The Dark Knight and Logan, which did not get nominated for this award, were also not nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. It feels like once a movie like this gets a Golden Globe nomination for Best Drama, it becomes harder for the Academy to ignore it. There’s no telling right now whether the Globes will go for Endgame, but its chances will get a massive boost if they do.
Ultimately, all of this is little more than speculation – we still have more than half a year to go before Endgame‘s Oscar chances become apparent. I’m still not QUITE ready to place it in my official predictions for Best Picture. However, taking everything I’ve already said into account, I certainly don’t think it’s impossible that it could earn a nomination, and will list it as a strong contender for now. We’ll just have to wait and see.
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